What Canada’s condominium marketplace would possibly appear to be next 12 months

While the percentage of accessible fashions in Canada’s primary condominium marketplace remained just about the equivalent in 2021 compared to the 12 months previous than, there are however problems that vacancy fees in key markets all the way through the country would possibly see a decline come next 12 months.

In response to Thomas Davidoff, a housing economist and associate professor at the School of British Columbia’s Sauder College of Endeavor, a decrease in vacancy fees approach “unhealthy knowledge” for renters.

“In most cases, vacancy [rates] and rents switch in opposite directions,” he instructed CTVNews.ca on March 3 in a phone interview. “When there’s additional landlords searching for tenants, they’ve a tendency to wish to lower rents, and when there’s additional tenants chasing after a small number of apartments, then rents are vulnerable to upward thrust.”

In response to a record simply in recent years introduced via the Canada Loan and Housing Corporate (CMHC), Canada’s purpose-built condominium marketplace had a vacancy rate of 3.1 according to cent in 2021, a slight drop compared to the overall vacancy rate in 2020 of 3.2 according to cent. The standard hire for a two-bedroom area unit in Canada used to be $1,167 in 2021, representing a upward thrust of 3 according to cent compared to the 12 months previous than.

Among the pressures that have already begun to increase the call for for those condominium fashions – paying homage to better levels of immigration and rebounds in provincial activity markets – would possibly power down availability even further, said Bob Dugan, the CMHC’s leader economist. Without sufficient supply, the result may be able to be a bigger drop in vacancy fees, and an build up in hire prices, said Dugan.

“My worry is, if we can no longer get the supply problems fastened and moving reasonably bit additional in a while, it’s going to lead to an erosion of affordability with lower vacancy fees and higher hire will build up,” Dugan instructed CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on March 3. “There’s a possibility it should perhaps get harder previous than it’ll get more practical.”

Call for is a key take into consideration understanding the vacancy rate within purpose-built condominium markets, said Dugan. Those are in every other case typically referred to as primary condominium markets, which refers to structures built for the one function of renting out fashions.

In 2021, the country spotted an build up inside the call for for those condominium fashions compared to the 12 months previous than, said Dugan, partly attributable to a recovery in international migration levels on account of at ease adventure restrictions. Primarily based most commonly on knowledge from Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada, the country welcomed 184,500 new permanent citizens in 2020, while 401,000 new immigrants were admitted in 2021.

The lifting of pandemic-related restrictions on a regional level moreover contributed to monetary recovery by the use of increased employment of more youthful Canadians, said Dugan. In response to Statistics Canada, school scholars between 15 and 24 years of age spotted a 15.6 according to cent beef up in employment from August 2020 to August 2021, for example. Throughout the previous 12 months, employment within the equivalent age workforce dropped 11.8 according to cent.

“When you consider new relations formation, every new immigrants and more youthful families are vulnerable to first hire, and as they save up money, they switch into homeownership,” said Dugan. “On every occasion you spot the employment rate for more youthful people beef up, you’ll be capable of in truth see that that has an impact on condominium call for.”

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For the reason that international progresses by the use of the pandemic, Dugan said he anticipates there’ll continue to be will build up in every employment fees among more youthful adults, along with immigration to Canada, which puts condominium call for susceptible to further beef up going forward.

“If that’s the case, that may put downward tension on vacancy fees and would perhaps lead to further deterioration of affordability,” said Dugan.



Of the 37 census metropolitan spaces surveyed in CMHC’s record, 21 of them spotted a decrease in 2021 vacancy fees compared to the 12 months previous than. One in every of those spaces is Vancouver. In October 2020, the vacancy rate for purpose-built condominium apartments used to be 2.6 according to cent. That amount contracted to at least one.2 according to cent via October 2021.

Since 2014, the city has observed consistently low vacancy fees and emerging prices among condominium area fashions. Prior to the pandemic, condominium apartments inside the city’s additional town spaces were seeing greater call for than unmarried family homes purchased in suburban and rural markets, Davidoff said, a construction that reversed with the emergence of COVID-19. Alternatively knowledge amassed via the CMHC finds that during 2021, tenants began to go back to central spaces within the city with better hire prices.

As additional pandemic-related restrictions are lifted in British Columbia, Davidoff said he anticipates this latest construction will continue in Vancouver, with additional tenants on the lookout for to hire apartments located inside the city’s downtown core. Call for for those fashions will create additional tension within the city’s purpose-built condominium marketplace, he said.

“I imagine [rent growth] is going to irritate given the very low vacancy fees we’re seeing…and all over again, the go back to accommodate and downtown existence,” said Davidoff.

In 2021, the everyday value of hire grew via 2.4 according to cent in Vancouver, compared to merely 1.5 according to cent in 2020. Emerging vacancy fees within the city will help prohibit this development over the years, said Davidoff, and make hire additional affordable for citizens. Echoing Dugan, Davidoff said the solution is a endured beef up in condominium supply to raised meet call for.

“You want additional bargaining power for tenants, basically,” he said. “Whilst you’ve gotten 30 people searching for one area…that’s a disaster for hire development.

“Generally, we merely have too many people searching for too few homes.”


While the COVID-19 pandemic has little question had an impact on citizens of Toronto as correctly, certain segments of the population seem to have taken longer to bop once more from pandemic measures financially, in keeping with the CMHC record.

Monetary recovery from the pandemic came about at a in most cases sooner pace among the ones that can merely transition from the bricks-and-mortar place of business to the home place of business, said Jason Mercer, leader marketplace analyst for the Toronto Regional Exact Assets Board. Those persons are moreover usually hired in sectors of the labour marketplace which might be associated with commonplace to above commonplace profits, he said, and give a contribution to an impressive call for for homeownership inside the city.

Alternatively for others, considerably those running in accommodation and foods suppliers, those industries were slower to recover economically, and are conceivable however convalescing within the provide day on account of the various pandemic-related restrictions that have limited endeavor, said Mercer.

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“A lot of those sectors are associated with commonplace to underneath commonplace profits, and in order that you spot additional condominium families within a couple of of those sectors of the industrial machine,” he instructed CTVNews.ca in a phone interview on March 3. “Sectors that traditionally underpin the condominium marketplace call for have no longer recovered as in a while as others.”

This, in conjunction with greater condominium stock among rental apartments, has ended in an increased vacancy rate among purpose-built fashions inside the city observed within the provide day, said Mercer. In response to the CMHC, the Greater Toronto House spotted seven circumstances additional rental apartments input its long-term condominium marketplace in 2021 compared to purpose-built apartments. Those searching for more recent builds with stylish amenities and finishes, for example, would possibly want been additional susceptible to opt for a rental, liberating up vacancy fees among purpose-built condominium homes, he said. In 2021, Toronto’s purpose-built condominium marketplace recorded a vacancy rate of four.4 according to cent, compared to 3.4 according to cent the 12 months previous than.

However, Mercer said the city will conceivable see endured development inside the condominium marketplace among every purpose-built and rental apartments. Greater call for will lead to lower vacancy fees, which is in a position to in the end power up hire prices, he said.

“We’ll see commonplace hire surpass pre-pandemic levels because of the population continues to expand inside the Greater Toronto House,” said Mercer. “We’re seeing report levels of immigration and that is helping call for every for condominium housing and ownership housing.”


In conjunction with inspecting call for, it’s moreover very important to think about supply, said Dugan. In 2021, Canada spotted an build up inside the supply of purpose-build condominium area fashions throughout the year that matched call for general. More or less 40,000 fashions entered the condominium marketplace between October 2020 and October 2021. All through the equivalent time frame, occupied apartments moreover grew via about 41,000 fashions.

While condominium call for in maximum provinces followed an equivalent construction, supply gave the impression to outpace call for in every Ontario and Manitoba. In towns paying homage to Toronto and Winnipeg, supply exceeded call for via about 4,000 and 1,000 fashions, respectively.

Michael Froese, managing broker of Royal LePage High Exact Assets based in Winnipeg, said he has been seeing this development in supply first hand, with a brand spanking new area sophisticated being built just about his place of abode. Other high-rise area structures are being evolved inside the city’s downtown core and suburban Winnipeg as correctly, he said.

“[Developers] see an opening available in the market so that they assemble,” he instructed CTVNews.ca on March 7 in a phone interview. “Now, there’s additional to choose from in order that provides tenants additional alternatives and it decreases that tension at the upward swing [of rent prices].”

Just like Toronto, Winnipeg spotted its vacancy rate for purpose-built condominium apartments beef up, going from 3.8 according to cent in 2020 to five according to cent in 2021. Each and every towns moreover well-known will build up in commonplace hire prices for those fashions. In Toronto, this used to be attributable to additional competition among landlords, in keeping with the CMHC. In Winnipeg, better commonplace hire prices were a result of additional newly built purpose-built condominium fashions coming into the marketplace, Froese said.

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“It does type of defy the usual economics of supply and insist,” he said. “Alternatively what’s available in the market’s new, and new is nicer and new in most cases fetches additional [money] than earlier.”

Without reference to those will build up in hire prices, every towns spotted development fees slow down compared to previous years. In Toronto, when comparing rents for linked fashions between October 2020 and October 2021, commonplace area rents increased via 1.3 according to cent in 2021. This is significantly lower than the upward thrust recorded in 2020 of four.7 according to cent. In Winnipeg, same-sample area rents increased via 2.6 according to cent in 2021, then again this decide has been decreasing frequently since 2018.

While Froese said he does foresee a endured beef up inside the commonplace value of purpose-built condominium area fashions, those will build up it will be cheap.

“I do rely on rents to choose up,” he said. “Expenses are going up once a year [and] inflation is using all of the issues so prices will continue to move up.”



Data inside the CMHC’s record moreover highlights demanding situations many Canadians face on the subject of condominium affordability, Dugan said. The record accommodates a breakdown of the number of hours citizens of various towns will have to paintings per month to adequately find the money for hire on a two-bedroom purpose-built condominium area.

Using commonplace local hourly wages, the record finds that during quite a few primary towns, in conjunction with Vancouver, Toronto and Winnipeg, citizens sought after to paintings more than the 150 hours from time to time logged each month if running complete time, in an effort to find the money for their hire. Nearly all spaces surveyed spotted a upward thrust in this metric in 2021 compared to the 12 months previous than.

“Other folks had to paintings additional hours than the sooner 12 months to hold that hire all of the manner right down to 30 according to cent in their profits,” said Dugan. “In those centres, you truly desire a 2d person to counterpoint the profits to make affordability paintings.”

In an effort to make condominium housing additional affordable all the way through the country, there should be a upward thrust in supply within the condominium marketplace, Dugan said. This is susceptible to prevent hire prices from emerging as so much or as in a while as they’d in every other case.

“Whilst you’ve gotten the number of hours of work [needed] to make condominium housing affordable emerging the way in which during which we provide inside the record, it means that we’re moving further clear of that objective [of affordability],” he said. “We wish supply in an effort to keep housing prices and rents safe, and switch within the course of a additional affordable housing market for everybody.”

This can be accomplished by the use of totally other levels of government partnering with non-public sector developers and developers, Dugan said. One different option to ponder comprises revising municipal zoning felony pointers to allow additional neighbourhoods to turn out to be single-family homes into multi-unit residential ones, paying homage to a duplex, triplex, or townhome, he said. Expediting the process of approving setting up lets in would possibly help blank the pathway within the course of additional affordable housing, said Dugan.

“Additional supply is very important to getting affordability beneath control in the longer term,” said Dugan.